A New Axis of Deterrence: The Saudi-Pakistani Defense Pact and the Rise of Multipolarity
When petrodollars meet plutonium, the balance of power shifts
The Quiet Build-Up
For years, the idea of a formal military alliance between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan lingered in diplomatic circles. Now, it has materialized. According to The Financial Times, this agreement has been quietly prepared over several years. Despite the fact that the pact reflects a long-standing strategic relationship that predates the current geopolitical order, the recent events may have served as a potent catalyst.
The history goes back to the early 1970s, when Pakistan first embarked on its nuclear journey. Following India’s 1974 nuclear test and Israel’s victory in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, then-Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto reached out to Saudi King Faisal, seeking support for Islamabad's own bomb. While the Saudis did not directly fund the nuclear project, their generous financial assistance during sanctions in the 1990s—documented by Brigadier General Feroz Khan in Eating Grass—allowed Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions to survive.
A brief discussion of the Saudi-Pakistan agreement is shared in this recent video on the World Affairs in Context YouTube channel.
Nuclear Shadows and Strategic Calculations
By 1998, Pakistan had successfully conducted nuclear tests. The following year, the Saudi Defense Minister visited Pakistan’s uranium enrichment facility. Since then, Riyadh has sought to tap into Pakistan’s nuclear expertise—officially for peaceful purposes. Pakistan, however, remained cautious.
But global tides are shifting. As U.S. power appears increasingly transactional and constrained, Saudi Arabia is re-evaluating its dependencies and its reliance on the United States. Access to nuclear technologies—particularly uranium enrichment—has become one of the Kingdom’s key ambitions. It even proposed to the U.S. that enrichment could be handled under American oversight on Saudi soil. Washington's silence or likely refusal has pushed Riyadh to explore alternatives.
Signing the Pact
In September 2025, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed a mutual defense pact in Riyadh. It marked a watershed moment: this is Riyadh’s first military alliance with a nuclear-armed state.
The terms, as per the Saudi Press Agency, are clear: aggression against either party will be considered aggression against both. The agreement aims to “develop aspects of defense cooperation” and “strengthen joint deterrence.” While the language may appear generic, its strategic implications are not.
Observers have already drawn comparisons to NATO’s Article 5, with the pact potentially anchoring a Muslim-majority collective defense framework.
Fallout and Reactions
The timing is no coincidence.
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