Mild Recession In Mid 2024, Inflation Resurges and Gaza's Energy Resources Targeted

Weekly Recap For The Week Ending February 16, 2024

Domestic Events:

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, January CPI topped expectations. U.S. prices increased in January, indicating the Federal Reserve will likely delay a rate cut until the second half of 2024.

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in January, beating 0.2% forecast. On a year-over-year basis, the inflation rate comes to 3.1% vs. +3.0% consensus.

Core CPI (which excludes food and energy) increased +0.4% during the month, also topping the +0.3% consensus estimate and exhibiting a faster pace than December's +0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, the reading climbed 3.9% vs. +3.7% expectation.

Following the report, there is a 51.6% and a 40.5% chance of an interest rate cut in June and July. A March interest rate cut is completely ruled out after this data:

I discussed the details in this weeks video: YouTube | Rumble

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Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that there is a chance the Federal Reserve may increase rates:

“There’s a meaningful chance, maybe it’s 15%, that the next move is going to be upwards in rates, not downwards”

The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for March 20th.

Mortgage rates increased during the week. As the result, spring home buying season might be slower than expected.

According to Freddie Mac, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.77%; while 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.12%:

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U.S retail sales dropped by the most in nearly one year. In January, the value of retail purchases decreased -0.8% from December.

Consumers are spending less burdened by high credit card balances and depleted savings.

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The US Tax Revenue is now just enough to pay the interest on the debt. That's called bankruptcy. They will need to cut rates or start printing money like there is no tomorrow. Both are explosive for Gold.

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US Senate approved $95 billion in foreign assistance:

• $60 billion for Ukraine

• $15 billion for Israel

• $5 billion for Taiwan

  

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January 2024 was the worst month for job cuts since March of 2023.

Companies that announced layoffs are largely driven by the need to cut costs in an increasingly uncertain environment. Among the companies that announced layoffs in January of 2024 were Blackrock, PayPal, Doling, Wayfair, eBay and Citigroup.

In total, nearly 83,000 employees were laid off during the first month of the year:

I discussed the details in this weeks video: YouTube | Rumble

International Events:

The race to secure natural resources continues.