The Federal Reserve Is Expected To Pause In June... What's Next?

After Tuesday's CPI Data, Another Rate Increase Is Unlikely

On Tuesday, June 13th, it was announced that the Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% compared to April and the expectation of 0.2%. Compared to the same period last year, the CPI increased 4.0% which indicates a slowdown of approximately 0.9%. Even with the slowdown, inflation is more than twice the Fed’s target. The biggest driver of the increase were shelter costs (ie. rent) that rose 0.6% compared to the prior month.

Based on the CPI data as well as regional bank failures and signs of tighter financial conditions, the Federal Reserve is expected to do the following: