Trump vs. E.U.: Threats Over Oil and Gas Exports, Wartime NATO Defense Spending, E.U. Decline and Economic Warfare

How much sovereignty are the European leaders willing to surrender?

In recent weeks, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump made several comments indicating that he is ready to take the economic war not only on the Global South but also on his allies in the European Union, to a new level.

In late November, Donald Trump threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on the BRICS+ bloc if it dares to continue its efforts to support currency multipolarity. In reality, however, such rhetoric only proves that the BRICS+ is, indeed, moving in the right direction as it seeks to create a more just financial and economic system.

The following month, in December, Trump issued a warning to the European Union demanding the elimination of the negative trade balance with Europe through massive purchases of American oil and gas. Otherwise, he threatened to impose tariffs on European exports to the U.S. Additionally, Trump's team demanded that the Europeans increase defense spending to 5 percent of GDP. While through their actions, many European leaders indicate that sovereignty is not one of their top priorities, one has to wonder just how far they are willing to go to support the interests of a foreign nation.

Trump’s policies towards the European Union and the war in Ukraine remain unclear. During the presidential campaign, Trump vowed to “end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours”. Now, the President-elect is sending quite contradictory signals: he hints at continuing support for Ukraine while also not ruling out forcing Volodimir Zelensky to negotiate and forget about the territories under the control of the Russian Federation. Trump’s attitude towards Zelensky has been quite clear. For example, when asked whether he invited Zelensky, whose presidential term ended in May 2024, to his inauguration in January, Trump’s response was surprising yet quite telling:

There are many unknowns concerning Trump’s stance on the E.U. For instance, Elon Musk publicly supported Germany's AfD, a party that is against any aid to Kyiv.

Other members of the elected president's team have also voiced similar views. Without a doubt, there is a struggle within Trump’s circle over approaches to Ukraine. Therefore, statements from different factions within this team should not be taken as a final position.

Trump’s stance on adjusting relations between the U.S. and the E.U. will drive how much support is provided to Zelensky to continue refusing to negotiate with Russia. Trump appears unlikely to continue sending billions to Ukraine and the European Union is not in a position to foot the bill on its own.

The President-elect argues that the U.S. is not obliged to bear the lion's share of NATO’s defense costs and that NATO allies should carry a much larger portion of the expenses to relieve the burden on Americans. While it would be reasonable to assume that many Americans support this initiative, let us be honest - NATO cannot exist without the support from the United States. With a considerable political crisis in Europe, there are many unknowns: Germany is heading to early elections, and in France, the government has been dismissed. The situation in the U.K. is also tense concerning the budget.

At the same time, demanding that the EU countries shoulder 5 percent of their GDP on defense spending is an ambitious request. The U.S. spends less than 3.5 percent of its GDP on defense. Russia, a country engaged in a full-scale war against the collective West, allocated 6 percent of its GDP for military purposes this year and is set to increase it to 6.3 percent in 2025. Therefore, 5 percent is essentially the defense budget of a wartime country. The question then becomes - is NATO preparing for a full-scale war soon, say, within the next five years, if it agrees to hike its defense spending to 5 percent?

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