Weekly Recommendations & Recap

Things to Watch, Read and Catch Up On

Greetings, All!

Let’s catch up on the latest top headlines, opinions and recommendations.

EU 'Accelerates' Digital Euro Launch: Digital Euro Launch Date Revealed

Christine Lagarde, the head of the European Central Bank, announced that the EU is accelerating the launch date of the digital Euro. This central bank digital currency enables the issuing entity (i.e., a central bank) to exercise full control of the currency, set its expiry date (if it wishes), access transaction history, and more. The rollout is planned for October 2025. I discuss the details in this video. 

Germany's War Plans: Volkswagen Shifts to Weapons Production as EU Accelerates Militarization

Volkswagen, with its history of human rights abuses (such as using forced labor, besides supporting the Nazi war machine) during WWII, is planning to shift from manufacturing vehicles to producing military equipment in line with the EU’s goal to militarize. Rheinmetall’s CEO, Armin Pappeger, expects 25-30 percent profits for companies in the military-industrial complex in 2025 and beyond due to billions in backlogs. Are we witnessing yet another attempt by Germany to rise as a military power? More details are discussed further here.

Putin Responds to Ceasefire Offer, Says Russia Seeks Peace as Trump Toughens Sanctions on Russia

The US-Ukraine 30-day ceasefire proposal to Russia was arguably on top of the week’s headlines. Russian President Putin gave a masterclass in diplomacy as his response not only “put the ball back” into the US court but also emphasized the shortcomings of the original proposal that clearly pursued a re-run of Minsk 3.0.

While President Putin agreed to the idea of a ceasefire, he underscored the need to work on a long-term peace between Russia and Ukraine rather than a temporary ceasefire and an opportunity to rearm. Get caught up on the key points made by the Russian President here.

US Recession Red Flags: Price Expectations Soar on Tariffs as US Consumer Sentiment Drops

Market probabilities of a US recession are rising: 5-year Treasuries are pricing in a 52 percent chance of a recession within the next 12 months, up from 45 percent in November. Recession odds priced in by the Russell 2000 index spiked to 48 percent. Donald Trump openly admitted that we are heading into a recession, although he downplayed it as a “short-term pain.” Is this a similar statement to that of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who spent years dismissing inflation as “transitory”? President Trump attributed rising fears to factors such as trade tensions and global economic uncertainties.

The US economy has been slowing - the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s daily tracking estimate of US real GDP growth in the first quarter is NEGATIVE -2.4 percent. Consumer sentiment slid another 11 percent this month to 57.9, the third straight month of decline. Declines are seen consistently across all groups by age, education, income, wealth, political affiliations, and geographic regions. Long-term inflation expectations also surged to 3.9 percent in March from 3.5% in February. I discussed the top two policies that might drive the economy over the edge in a recent video.

In the News…

• President Trump threatened to oust Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY). Massie, known for his focus on cutting budget deficits and addressing the surging national debt, is also well-known for not accepting contributions from AIPAC and calling for the Israel lobby to register in accordance with the FARA. Last week, Thomas Massie was the only one who voted against the Biden-Schumer-Johnson spending spree, while the entire Republican-led House voted in favor, in accordance with the Democrats. 

• President Donald Trump plans to gain control of Greenland while he sends the US military to “claim” the Panama Canal. Trump stated:

  "I think the annexation of Greenland will happen. We are going to have to make a deal on Greenland."

• The housing affordability crisis in the US worsens: the US Pending Home Sales Index dropped -4.6 percent in January from the prior month to 70.6, the lowest reading on record. Contract signings, a leading indicator for housing, have declined -44 percent over the last 3 years, recording the largest drawdown in history. The drop in pending home sales reflects a tough housing market with extremely high costs and economic uncertainty weighing on buyers.

• Solving the deficit crisis in the US should become a top priority (and this is why Rep. Thomas Massie deserves all the support we can provide to him!): in 2024 alone, 34 percent of US GDP came from government spending; a record number outside of crisis circumstances

  

What I’m Reading This Week…

Trump and the viable road to peace in Ukraine

Written by Jack Matlock Jr. for Responsible Statecraft

Mr. Matlock, former U.S. Ambassador to the USSR, wrote a very interesting opinion article on President Trump’s strategy to end the conflict in Ukraine. Reflecting on decades of diplomatic experience negotiating the end of the Cold War and on a close knowledge of both Ukraine and Russia, the author welcomes the restoration of diplomacy between Moscow and Washington, DC. He emphasizes the importance of ending the policy of using Ukraine as a tool to weaken Russia as a necessary step for achieving peace in Europe.

How Democracy Died in Romania

Written by Thomas Fazi for The Compact

Romania’s presidential elections showcase the dire state of democracy in many states as foreign powers seek to install “convenient” regimes to further their pro-war, pro-West agenda. Călin Georgescu, the front-runner in the elections, a NATO critic, and a pro-peace candidate, is prevented from running for office.

Trump’s erratic policy is harming the reputation of American assets

Published in The Economist

Although I rarely agree with what The Economist has been publishing recently, this particular article points out the obvious sentiments that have started to spread after weeks of sending mixed signals on trade policies, which still remain uncertain, as well as the approach towards the war in Gaza and the conflict in Ukraine, which still remains quite distant from the promises made on the campaign trail. Falling confidence and rising confusion might start to appear as a common theme on social media and MSM across the political spectrum. The Economist explores how the chaotic first months of the new presidency impacted the US economy and where it may move from here.

Lastly, what content are you most interested in these days, and what should we focus on next week?

---

Thank you to all of my subscribers for being part of World Affairs in Context. Your support makes the newsletter happen, and your questions, ideas, and suggestions are the inspiration behind it. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, which will help contribute towards the resources needed to produce more content.

---