I fully expect the global economic situation to crater within the next few years. It's not sustainable anymore and something has to give. If Japan can't hang on, the rest of the western world will crumble like dominoes when Japan's economy collapses. When that happens, China and Russia will be on the sidelines telling each other, "See, I told you so."
I keep thinking that China, for all of it's faults, may be a safer bet for a stable standard of living when the house of cards finally falls down.
Japanese bonds hardly have much to commend them. The National Debt to GDP in Japan is 200%+ and rising. The US isn't great, but we are a clean shirt considering how crazy the Bank of Japan has been. They even bought Japanese stocks and suppressed interest rates for decades. Anyone who would consider tucking his money away for 30 years at 4% (Japan) or 5% (US) is absolutely clueless. I cannot imagine loaning my money to the government for 10 years, locking in an interest rate. I feel sure inflation in the US will be less than Japan's, so their money in Yen will be eroded faster than the Dollar.
For comparison purposes, Russia's National Debt to GDP is . . . 19%! How amazing is that. A responsible government, at war even, and still keeping their National Debt tiny. My hat is off to them. The Ruble may be last fiat currency standing, at that rate.
Thanks for the careful analysis and summary of current situation!
I wonder if you have any advice for smaller individual investors, or pointers to a channel we can go to learn.
May i suggest for future posts where your embedded video mentions "links in the description below" that those links be copied to the substack article as well so we dont have to go onto Youtube to find them.
Don't buy bonds unless you know they are near the top. When interest rates are rising, bonds take a bath. If you are looking long-term, a good commodity ETF would be a good investment as commodities are needed in good times and bad. They are also virtually inflation proof as producers can pass along their costs. If only defensive for a bit, some utility/pipeline stocks pay decent dividends and can also have capital appreciation.
I fully expect the global economic situation to crater within the next few years. It's not sustainable anymore and something has to give. If Japan can't hang on, the rest of the western world will crumble like dominoes when Japan's economy collapses. When that happens, China and Russia will be on the sidelines telling each other, "See, I told you so."
I keep thinking that China, for all of it's faults, may be a safer bet for a stable standard of living when the house of cards finally falls down.
Japanese bonds hardly have much to commend them. The National Debt to GDP in Japan is 200%+ and rising. The US isn't great, but we are a clean shirt considering how crazy the Bank of Japan has been. They even bought Japanese stocks and suppressed interest rates for decades. Anyone who would consider tucking his money away for 30 years at 4% (Japan) or 5% (US) is absolutely clueless. I cannot imagine loaning my money to the government for 10 years, locking in an interest rate. I feel sure inflation in the US will be less than Japan's, so their money in Yen will be eroded faster than the Dollar.
For comparison purposes, Russia's National Debt to GDP is . . . 19%! How amazing is that. A responsible government, at war even, and still keeping their National Debt tiny. My hat is off to them. The Ruble may be last fiat currency standing, at that rate.
Thanks for the careful analysis and summary of current situation!
I wonder if you have any advice for smaller individual investors, or pointers to a channel we can go to learn.
May i suggest for future posts where your embedded video mentions "links in the description below" that those links be copied to the substack article as well so we dont have to go onto Youtube to find them.
Don't buy bonds unless you know they are near the top. When interest rates are rising, bonds take a bath. If you are looking long-term, a good commodity ETF would be a good investment as commodities are needed in good times and bad. They are also virtually inflation proof as producers can pass along their costs. If only defensive for a bit, some utility/pipeline stocks pay decent dividends and can also have capital appreciation.
Thanks!