Larry McDonald is a New York Times bestselling author, a frequent writer for Bloomberg, Forbes, and CNBC, and the founder of an investment macro-trends newsletter - The Bear Traps Report.
Echoes of 2008: Watching the Warning Signs
Reflecting on his 2008 crisis experience, Larry McDonald warns of rising debt risks today. As in 2007, similar concerns voiced across sectors signal potential trouble, especially in student loans, buy-now-pay-later, and tertiary lenders, though not yet at 2008 levels.
Confidence Shaken: America’s Fiscal Chaos and the Global Bond Reckoning
Global bond investors have faced a whirlwind of challenges: nearly $1 trillion in U.S. deficit spending in late 2024, chaotic tariff announcements from Trump in April, and mixed fiscal signals from both parties. Bipartisan dysfunction in Washington and the growing market volatility (and unpredictability) have made the U.S. look increasingly like an emerging market. Rate cuts, AI-driven capital spending, and erratic policymaking have created a volatile environment. Investors are losing faith in the dollar, with many forced to reduce exposure. Treasury auctions have weakened, and inflationary risks are growing. The U.S. isn’t losing reserve currency status just yet —but decades of global confidence are unraveling, and the bond market may soon strike back.
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Breaking the Safety Net: Bonds No Longer a Crisis Hedge
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