Although President Donald Trump campaigned on ending the Ukraine-Russia conflict “in 24 hours”, the complexity of the US proxy war has proven to be far more nuanced. Since January 2025, the neocons in Washington spent $1 billion to bomb Yemen as the Trump Administration approved nearly $12 billion in major FMS sales to Israel. As the US buildup of military assets around Iran intensifies, will it seek to exit its failed proxy war in Ukraine to attack Iran?
Dr. Pascal Lottaz notes that although the US-Russia peace talks are progressing much slower than originally expected, the peace in Ukraine is viewed by both sides as only a part of the bigger goal to re-establish an effective security architecture in Europe. The calls for a ceasefire are meant to freeze the conflict as Russia is decisively winning on the battlefield. The tensions within the Trump administration and the neocons who push to continue the fighting (such as Gen. Chris Cavoli) indicate internal policy misalignment as the military-industrial complex refuses to abandon a failed proxy war before it sets the stage for a pivot to another lucrative multi-billion-dollar conflict.
Dr. Pascal Lottaz is Associate Professor for Neutrality Studies at Kyoto University’s Faculty of Law & Hakubi Center. Follow Pascal on X and watch one of his recent interviews and analysis videos on Neutrality Studies.
The video is available on YouTube and Patreon.
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